Wow. That was something on Saturday. A lot of hearts were broken and some people might be checking out for the season. I understand…but that won’t be me. It’s about growth. And while a win would have been HUGE for the program, you can’t say there wasn’t some growth (especially offensively) on Saturday.

It was also nice to see that 50K-plus can still show up to Scott. Sadly, they didn’t come back after the delay…and that definitely mattered. There should have been better communication, for sure, but the JMU fans never left. Hell, their band was playing from the nosebleeds well into the delay.

There’s a lot to talk about. The pod was recorded Sunday morning before the NFL games. I also put the video version below the pod version.

Audio version:

Video version:

Like, subscribe, all that good stuff. Go Hoos!

There will be real college football this weekend. How crazy is that? It really snuck up this year. Part of that is because there hasn’t been as much buzz around our team through camp. Everyone is picking UVA to finish last…and I get it. You get it, too. But it’s still college football in our city and I can’t wait. Plus, we have a new QB to get behind, legacies to honor, and the potential for a “no one believes in us” season. Listen to my preview episode with Greg Madia from The Daily Progress. Go Hoos

So with all that on my mind, and about 10 brackets already filled out, I hit up Bennett Conlin, the former Virginia sports beat writer at the Daily Progress, and we talked about March Madness for 20 minutes. We did the same thing last year, so maybe we have a Virginia Gameday tradition on our hands! Enjoy the show, gang.

Coach Bennett, after missing seven shots in a row to start the game, went back to UVA’s traditional offense (Sides). He also went deeper into his bench early on, giving meaningful minutes to rarely-used Francisco Caffaro and Taine Murray. Ryan Dunn lit the match emotionally, though, finishing an alley-oop and-one when they were down 5-0 to Clemson. It led to a 17-2 run for Virginia and they never trailed again.

Coach Bennett moving away from things that haven’t been as effective is good news, as you never know what you’ll encounter in the NCAA Tournament. So many different styles, matchups, etc. And the development of Dunn, and Isaac McKneely for that matter, make them more dynamic. The ceiling is raised for this team when the role players are playing well. Some of it can be chalked up to playing at home, but from here on out its either home or a neutral site, and that’s good a good thing.

The 64-57 win over Clemson was a Quad 2 victory for Virginia, putting a nice patch on a tournament resume that was leaking. Now all that’s left is Senior Night at JPJ on Saturday against Louisville before the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament.

Yet that’s not the case. The analytics from the conference have brought Virginia from No. 5 KenPom at the start of the year to No. 23 currently — despite going 21-4 with zero losses outside the Top 70. And so much lately has been made about how many points we’re winning by. Focusing more on covering the spread than winning outright. Winning in conference play is hard, flat out.

So many top-level teams are struggling with just winning right now, not winning by X-amount of points. Now, did Virginia underperform against Louisville and Notre Dame, sure. But did those teams also play great basketball against Virginia? Yes. Ask Clemson about Louisville, by the way. And a little let down week from UVA can be expected after beating Duke in a highly emotional game.

More ranting in the podcast below, plus UVA baseball off to a hot start!

Next up, Virginia has a chance to sweep the state of North Carolina by beating Duke. They have already beat Wake, UNC, and now NC State. Next up, Dukies!

Listen below to the morning-after reaction pod from Tuesday night’s victory!

The episode is basically split in two parts; the first half is my instant reaction to the Wake Forest win and the second half is the interview! Enjoy and Go Hoos!

Oh yeah, did I mention Stephen Curry and Michael Vick were at the game? That and more in the latest podcast episode below! #GoHoos

AKA a perfect time to look back on the season so far and make some observations.

Right now, we’re 13-3 overall and ranked No. 12 in the KenPom rankings. Included in our resume are three Quad 1 wins, plus a Quad 2 home win over North Carolina that could wind up being a Quad 1 win. We played arguably the best team in the nation (Houston) tough at home and our other two losses were both one-score defeats on the road in conference play.

Compared to last year, when we were in the 80’s in KenPom with a whole gaggle of rough defeats, I’d say we’re lightyears ahead.

How did we get here? Well, let’s start with the guys who were on that team last year.

Kihei Clark and Armaan Franklin have both made huge jumps in terms of production. Simply put, they’re better players than they were last season. Across the board, Kihei’s numbers are up, and when the team is at their lowest, it seems Kihei is the only guy who can pull them up by their bootstraps and get things on track. A great example is when they were oddly letting Albany hang around and the crowd was getting restless. He picked the pocket of Albany’s point guard on CONSECUTIVE plays to one, get the crowd involved, and two, give the team some cushion. It’s probably the best individual moment of the season.

Armaan’s biggest jump has come from behind the arc and on the glass. He worked relentlessly in the offseason and it’s paid off. If you’re a Wahoo fan, you’ve certainly heard the Justin Anderson story. Because of his rebounding ability, he’s been able to play the small ball four. Against North Carolina, he got multiple tough boards in traffic, then did a fair share of work in the post against smaller defenders. Since December 28th, his numbers are incredible.

Reece Beekman has also taken his game to the next level, though an injury in mid-December has hampered his numbers. When he’s healthy, however, and you watch him play, the eye-test tells you everything you need to know.

Jayden Gardner was the team’s leading scorer last year and he deserves major credit. Not for any huge jump in production or anything, but because of the team player he’s been. Going from the No. 1 option in Year A to not an option at all some games in Year B is tough, and it usually isn’t so seamless. It’s all part of the Humility pillar; you see the results and you do what you can when you’re called on. Jayden is still a vital player to this team, his skillset is just best against some teams rather than all teams. Last year, Tony didn’t have a ton of options. This year, he’s got a full tool belt of options.

Even so, Jayden has solid numbers (10.3 ppg/4.9 rpg) while shooting a better percentage from the field than last season.

Now if we’re going to talk tool belt, you’ve got to talk about the new guys. The new blood that’s come in has built upon the improvements the returners have made. Of course, the three that have made the biggest impact are transfer Ben Vander Plas and highly-touted recruits Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn. First and foremost, they fit. Now, I know they do a great job filtering all that out in the recruitment process but it must be noted.

Vander Plas had a few tough weeks but he’s completely used that rough stretch as fuel. He put the team on his back in the second half against UNC, then in his first ACC start, he dropped 11 points in a four-minute stretch to get them off on the right foot vs. Florida State. You could argue he’s the most valuable piece right now because he gives the team so much versatility. Against North Carolina, they went small in the second half using BVP at small ball five and that was the difference.

When BVP is at the five, that leaves Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro on the bench. That said, Papi is a very specific tool (see tool belt analogy); when they need to get more physical, insert the big guy. When the opposing team is getting to the rim too often, lean on Kadin.

McKneely is gaining more confidence every game. Confidence to let it fly from deep, but also the confidence to put the ball on the deck every now and again. With his shooting ability, that’s so vital. It’s like setting up the play-action in football. It keeps the defense honest if they see you willing to drive baseline. He’s currently shooting 40.6 percent from deep with real volume (four attempts per game).

Dunn has a huge ceiling and he hasn’t scratched the surface yet. He’s not getting a ton of minutes, but when he gets legit time (10+ minutes) he’s always impactful. Look for him to be a staple in the lineup for a long time. He’s long and plays great defense; that will always earn you minutes with Tony.

So that’s a little run down of the roster. Let’s do some superlative-type things then project the rest of the year.

Best Moment: It’s hard to beat that stretch where UVA men’s and women’s teams hadn’t lost a game yet, to be honest. Specific moment, however, has to go to the aforementioned back-to-back steals from Kihei Clark. Also, the buzz for the team after the Monmouth blowout was great too. Seeing I-Mac and Dunn perform so well gave the fan base glimpses of a potential Kyle Guy-DeAndre Hunter combo.

Worst Moment: Second half against Pitt and it’s not even close.

First-Half MVP: Gotta go Kihei Clark. I’ve been on record saying he needed to play like 28 minutes per game this year and I was way wrong. When the pressure is on, there’s no one else I want with the rock. He’s always composed. He’s the steady hand. And, for what it’s worth, there aren’t many reliable ball-handlers up against pressure outside of Kihei and Reece.

Most Improved: I probably spoiled this one early on, but let’s go Armaan. it seemed like he shot the Hoos out of a few games last year (11 games with zero three-balls). On the contrary, he’s gotten very consistent this season. Through 16 games, he only has three games with zero three-balls, and one of them was vs. UNC where he did so many other things to contribute. You have to be so happy for Armaan. Hard work pays off, y’all.

Where will we finish?

Per KenPom, the Hoos are only projected to lose one more ACC game (at UNC on February 25th).

That said, I can see them dropping another game or two. But…I think they win the ACC Tournament this year, then get a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the dance and make a run to at least the Sweet 16. And if that happens, you better believe I’m going to road trip it to wherever that happens to be. Go Hoos baby!

I might have bet my car on the Hoos after Brennan Armstrong and Dontayvion Wicks hooked up for their first touchdown of the season midway through the first quarter. The strike put Virginia up 10-0 and all signs — I really mean all signs — were pointing toward a Wahoo blowout. Louisville, a team in disarray and just one loss away from a potential firing, had a totally unproven backup quarterback under center, and through a couple drives, he looked totally overmatched.

Throughout the week, I’d been telling whoever would listen that Virginia was in a perfect spot for a bounce back. A get-right game, if you will. They were embarrassed by a team they were supposed to beat and they were coming home. Finally. It was all lining up.

So now we’re up 10-0 and driving, again. Back-to-back strikes to Keytaon Thompson. Boom, boom, inside Louisville territory. I was crazy enough to think maybe KT would get his first receiving touchdown of the year, checking the box Wicks had checked a few minutes prior.

Well…it was just wishful thinking. All of it. Virginia shot themselves in the foot. Brennan fumbled at the end of a scramble, inside the redzone, giving him twice as many lost fumbles this year (4) as the rest of his Virginia career (2). Now, I still would have been very bullish on the Hoos fulfilling my pregame prophecy at this point, but it turned out to be the start of the death spiral that became Homecomings Saturday.

I’m really happy I didn’t have a master bookmaker sitting next to me in Section 115 because I could be without a car right now. Just kidding. But If there was one, maybe my wife and I would have stayed in our seats and NOT moved to the student section to meet up with some old friends. Because, I kid you not, we moved seats when it was 10-0 and I’m here to take a bit of responsibility for what transpired on the field after. We messed with the juju, and after every play that went amiss, I told someone. SMH

If you’re not the type of guy or gal who believes in those superstitious-type things, here’s a few things that actually factored into the outcome.

Brock Domann — Louisville’s unproven backup QB — got too comfortable.

This was one of the biggest things, in my opinion. To start the second quarter, Domann, who had just 16 collegiate pass attempts before the game, led a long field goal drive that gave him all sorts of confidence. He wasn’t throwing the ball all over the yard or anything but the Virginia defense was having a tough time stopping their running game. Louisville converted two third-downs on running plays from Jawhar Jordan…

Which then set up the disaster/great play that came on their next drive. After a three-and-out by the Hoos, the Cards were faced with a 4th-and-2 at the Virginia 44. Instead of giving the ball to the back, though, Domann pulled it and ran untouched for a touchdown. No one saw it coming. It was a great play by him, and from there the dude was just walking on water.

Credit to Domann and their O-line. The Hoos have a good pass rush but they didn’t get home all game, finishing with zero sacks. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but the last thing I’d want to see as a green backup QB was blitzers with their ears pinned back every time I went to drop back.

Foot. Shot. Again

The fumble by Brennan in the first quarter was a bummer. That could have been a situation where ALL the wind was out of their sails and we cruise. The ball bounced the other way, of course, and it didn’t happen like that. That said, there was plenty more foot shooting to come.

Wicks dropped a few balls, an issue for him all season. He wasn’t alone; KT also had a key drop on a 3rd-and-long. Speaking of, they were only 3-for-12 on third-down conversions and 1-for-3 on fourth downs. Penalty-wise, Virginia again struggled, including an instance where they turned a 4th-and-12 into a 4th-and-17 and then a 4th-and-20 because they had back-to-back penalties. Overall they finished with 8 for 66 yards.

As for BA, he finished with three turnovers (one lost fumble, two interceptions) and now has 11 on the season (four lost fumbles, seven interceptions).

Balance issues.

Virginia’s running game and defense were strengths through four games, but over the last two, they’ve taken a step back. The Hoos only ran for 99 yards between the Duke and Louisville games, while the defense allowed 72 combined points.

None of the backs could find a rhythm against Louisville. Overall, the three backs combined for 13 yards on 11 attempts. The offensive line also had a tough time with Louisville’s front. Not only did their running game suffer but Brennan was sacked six times.

It’s hard to find a silver lining from this one. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. But…we are seeing more flashes of Brennan looking comfortable and confident. If the drops, turnovers, and penalties are finally out of their system they can actually start building something. Defensively, the week off will be great for them to get healthy. I believe in Coach Rud and the offense has put them in some bad spots with all the turnovers.

At this point, I just want to see them growing…if that makes sense. If they can show they’re growing in the new system and stop beating themselves, that would be growth. But then they have to go beat Tech. The wins might not be coming…but if Coach Elliott beats Tech, he will have a nice jumping off point for next season.

It’s easy to be disappointed with where the football team is right now. Virginia is 2-2 with losses against their only two Power 5 opponents. And if we’re being honest, even the two wins didn’t set the world on fire. They needed a last-second field goal to top Old Dominion and they actually lost the second half against Richmond.

Part of the disappointment comes from last season. Through eight games the Hoos were 6-2 and the offense was lighting up the scoreboard regularly. If not for an injury, a canceled bowl game, and an odd play call against Tech, their overall record could have looked pretty good. My thought going into the year is that they’d be building on those successes from last season. Thus far, that hasn’t been the case, particularly through the air.

Allow me to make heads or tails of the situation.

There’s a new staff implementing a new system for a group of veterans. On defense, that’s fine and dandy. The only direction they could have gone was up, and after a season like last, players are eager to learn and get better. On the other side, it’s probably difficult to tell an offensive unit that was KILLING IT last season that they’re going to scrap what was working and start from scratch. Not only is it a playbook issue (basically learning a new language) but you also have to get everyone to buy in.

I was wrong in thinking the offense would pick up where it left off. A lot of fans probably feel the same way. It’s not Madden. You can’t just go to settings and pick a new playbook and expect perfect execution. Getting everyone up to speed and pulling in the same direction takes a lot of time. However, I do believe in the new system and think it’s a better fit long term.

Having patience is tough when you’re looking strictly at the passing numbers compared to a year ago. I totally get it. They’re night and day. At the same time, the rushing and defensive numbers are night and day compared to last year in a good way. As a fan, that inspires confidence in the new coaching staff. Their batting average so far isn’t hall-of-fame worthy by any means but they’ve been able to improve some real problem areas from recent seasons.

Having said all that, we may have witnessed the offense really turn a corner in the second half vs. Cuse.

Brennan Armstrong and company put together two different 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drives against the Orange after trailing 16-0 at halftime. They also put one in the endzone after getting the ball with a short field. Given the competition level — Syracuse is No. 3 in the ACC in scoring defense and No. 22 in the nation — it was hands down their best half of the season.

Prior to the second half against the Orange, the Wahoos only mustered three points total in their other three halves against Power 5 opponents. That includes a first half against Illinois where the Illini turned it over four times, a second half against Illinois where the Illini missed multiple field goals, and a first half against Syracuse where the Orange turned it over twice.

• first half vs. Illinois: 3 points

• second half vs. Illinois: 0 points

• first half vs. Syracuse: 0 points

• second half vs. Syracuse: 20 points

Even the second half against Cuse was far from perfect but it’s definitely something. So much of this game is confidence and Brennan having those long touchdown drives against a LEGIT defense under his belt will absolutely help in that department.

Virginia’s situation isn’t ideal, but it’s also not unique. Right in their own division is an example of a team taking a step back under a new regime, and there’s is more alarming nationally. Miami just lost to Middle Tennessee as 25.5-point favorite and they benched their quarterback Tyler Van Dyke — the same guy who finished third in ACC Preseason Player of the Year voting — in the third quarter.

The Hoos, for the sake of noting, were underdogs in both of their losses this season. They could have won against Cuse with a break here or there but it didn’t shake out that way. There have been games in the past that went our way when getting a break here or there, so it all comes out in the wash. Bottom line, the last time we saw the Hoos play, they played their best statistical football. That’s encouraging. From the coaching side, they’re doing a lot of things right. Have patience and keep the faith.

#GoHoos

Back in 2015, Stanford opened their season with a 16-6 loss at Northwestern. Christian McCaffrey was held to less than 100 yards and Kevin Hogan averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. Random, I know, but if you fast-forward a few months, that same Stanford team was celebrating a Rose Bowl victory after blowing out No. 6 Iowa. And on the way to “The Granddaddy of Them All" they beat a slew of ranked teams.

I’m not saying Virginia is going to the Rose Bowl but I am saying that good things sometimes come from ugly, hideous sporting events. Hell, there’s a perfect example right across the street! See below:

If you haven't watched that speech in a while it's a great way to spend 16 minutes. Promise. Watch here.

There are a ton of other examples we could use to deliver the same message but that’s not going to do us a ton of good. Instead, we just have to turn the page and get right. You know everyone in the program is embarrassed. They, like me and I’m sure some of the fanbase, thought we were immune to any scenario where we could actually not put up gaudy offensive stats. Then we took a little trip to Champaign and you know the rest. We’re back down to earth. Like Coach Elliott mentioned in his postgame, “to win football games, you never get it at half price.”

I’m sure coach and the team are going to pore over this tape and glean all sorts of good nuggets to ensure they never lose again. Me, on the other hand, will not be going back to watch that game. Ever. For the first hour after the final bloody second ticked off the clock, I thought about hiding for an entire week until I had something positive to talk about. Just pop back up like everything’s all goooood after our next win. Instead I rallied, hopped behind the mic for a reaction pod and got back to it. Just like it was one of those “For All Virginia” hype videos.

By now you know went wrong in the game (rough BA game, protection issues, one third-down conversion) and there’s nothing I can say here that hasn’t been said already. I did speak about the game in the pod above if you want to hear it, though. Leave a review while you’re there 😁 and thanks a ton if you really do! What I thought might be cool is to see how the Hoos bounced back in the last few years after losing by 20-plus points.

September 24, 2021: Wake Forest 37, Virginia 17

Last season, Virginia lost an ugly one at one to eventual Atlantic Division champ Wake Forest. I remember being at Scott Stadium for the game and it wasn’t pretty; we were down 20-3 at halftime before showing a few signs of life in the third quarter. The Deacs got ranked after the win, while it was certainly a wake-up call for UVA as well.

What followed was…four straight wins! Back-to-back TOUGH road wins at Miami and at Louisville followed immediately, then UVA beat both Duke and Georgia Tech at home.

December 19, 2019: No. 3 Clemson 62, No. 22 Virginia 17 (ACC Championship Game)

This is one that Tony Elliott certainly remembers. The ACC title game was close for a little while but Clemson was just too loaded. On the bright side, Virginia was there, and that’s awesome. It was a memorable year for UVA football and the high point of the Bronco era. It was the high point of the decade, actually.

What followed was…a bid into the Orange Bowl! OK, so the Hoos didn’t win (Florida 36, Virginia 28) but they went toe-to-toe with an SEC power until the end. A loss is never a win but you can bet those Gators respected them, and so did the 65,000 people in attendance. After all, Florida’s only losses in 2019 were to No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Georgia, and they blew the doors off most SEC teams completely. The Hoos kept it within one score and went down swinging. Not much disappointment on the face of Bronco.

That’s really it. No 20-point losses in the 2018 Belk Bowl year and I think going back before that is moot. So the next step now is to respond with a solid performance against ODU at home.

Speaking of, Coach Elliott is holding us fans accountable. I talked in Ep. 43 about the attendance difference between the first and second halves in the home opener, and he addressed it on Tuesday. In regards to the upcoming game against in-state foe ODU, “I liked the fact that the students showed up. Need them to stay the whole time.”

He continued, “I would like those folks that love Virginia football to not come when things are going good, but man, show these young men that you support them regardless because that’s what being a fan is. Man, you’re there with us, thick and thin, good and bad.”

Also, tickets are still available! It’s going to be a get-right game; I can feel it!

For all Week 3 ACC betting lines and our weekly ACC four-word game (Week 2) listen below !

#GoHoos

Game 1: Richmond at Virginia

Date: Saturday, September 3rd

It seems like every new head coach gets Richmond as their first test. London won, Bronco lost. Coach Tony Elliott? Big win, baby. WIN 38-10 (1-0, 0-0)

Game 2: Virginia at Illinois

Date: Saturday, September 10th

Last year we blew the doors off the Illini. Beat ‘em by like 30. Big difference this year, though. On the road in the Big Ten is no joke, plus they have a real quarterback this year. Last season, we beat up on their second-stringer. I say loss…but look, this early adversity is going to help in the long run. LOSS 27-21 (1-1, 0-0)

Game 3: Old Dominion at Virginia

Date: Saturday, September 17th

This is a dub either way, but if they do end up falling to Illinois they’re really gonna put on a show. The last (and only) time they played ODU was early in the 2019 season, winning by double digits at home. Of course, they went on to win the Coastal in 2019. Maybe we’ll see a repeat in the final year of dueling divisions. WIN 42-20 (2-1, 0-0)

Game 4: Virginia at Syracuse

Date: Friday, September 23rd

Ahhhh, so many storylines here. Where to start? Well, first it’s in the primetime ESPN spot on Friday night. Second, it’s their ACC opener. Third, and definitely the most intriguing of the bunch, we get to face off against former coaches Robert Anae (aka Dr. Bob) and Jason Beck, now with Cuse. Our offense seems made for turf, plus you just know our D is going to be fired up to hold Dr. Bob’s new unit in check. Win 24-21 (3-1, 1-0)

Game 5: Virginia at Duke

Date: Saturday, October 1

Duke is the worst team in the ACC and while they have a new staff that could eventually work, they probably won’t win a conference game this year. We always get up for Duke, too. Our defense was historically poor last year but we still shut out the Blue Devils. Win 47-9 (4-1, 2-0)

Game 6: Louisville at Virginia

Date: Saturday, October 8

First conference home game! I expect Scott to be rocking for this one, especially if we’re 4-1 or 5-0. The Cards are going to be a play-every-year team under the new schedule model — along with Virginia Tech and North Carolina — and I can think of some good memories against them. In our last two home games vs. Louisville, we had the Bryce Perkins hurdle game and a total score of Virginia 58, Louisville 20. WIN 38-31 (5-1, 3-0)

Game 7: Virginia at Georgia Tech

Date: Thursday, October 20

All the experts have Duke and Georgia Tech projected as the league’s two worst teams. The Jackets don’t have many starters returning from a year ago and their head coach is inching toward the hot seat. Virginia is currently on a two-game winning streak and they should make it three. Oh yeah, it’s a Thursday night game, so that’s fun too. WIN 30-17 (6-1, 4-0)

Game 8: Miami at Virginia

Date: Saturday, October 29

The hype train is officially rolling for the Canes and it’s hard to blame them. They have a legit quarterback, new coach, and tons of new talent through recruiting and the transfer portal. This game starts a four-game home stretch for the Hoos. They’ll get a few wins during the homestand but I can see a loss here. LOSS 35-17 (6-2, 4-1)

Game 9: North Carolina at Virginia

Date: Saturday, November 5

When I talked to Shane Simpson last year, he talked about how important the South’s Oldest Rivalry was to the team. With the momentum they’ll have built with six wins, the bitter taste of defeat from Miami, and a better team in my opinion, I see a must-see shootout win at Scott. Looking at the schedule, I predict this being the biggest crowd/best game/coolest atmosphere this season. WIN 45-38 (7-2, 5-1)

Game 10: Pittsburgh at Virginia

Date: Saturday, November 12

Pitt went and put itself back on the map last year with an ACC title. While some of the pieces moved on, it attracted new talent like QB Kedon Slovis from USC. This team is solid and one that could move the Hoos around a little bit. It’ll be a slobber knocker, I reckon. Definitely an under. LOSS 28-27 (7-3, 5-2)

Game 11: Coastal Carolina at Virginia

Date: Saturday, November 19

These guys aren’t pushovers by any stretch, but it’s the final home game of the year and a perfect chance for Brandon Armstrong to put up some big numbers toward his Heisman campaign. This game feels a little funny to me, scoring wise. Maybe a two-point conversion or safety or something. WIN 36-16 (8-3, 5-2)

Game 12: Virginia at Virginia Tech

Date: Saturday, November 26

It’s not about the X’s and the O’s, it’s about the Jimmys and the Joes. I don’t know who said it originally, but Trent Dilfer always says it nowadays. In this game, Virginia just has a better roster. Oh yeah, we’re also overdue. Coach Elliott gets a big monkey off his back in Year 1. WIN 27-6 (9-3, 6-2)

With Virginia’s home opener approaching, I wanted to talk a little about the tailgate scene at Scott Stadium! It’s not Clemson or anything, but our scene is unique in that it’s spread out between so many different spots and pockets. If you added them all up it might hit a little different. Anyhow, the Fontaine lot is free and there’s plenty of space to set your rig up and throw the ball around. For a complete map of parking options go here, it’s really helpful.

One important thing to note is that the “Wahoo Walk” is back!

“Approximately 2.5 hours before each home game, the UVA Football team will be dropped off at the southeast corner entrance of Scott Stadium off Whitehead Road. Fans are encouraged to attend and cheer on the Hoos as they enter Scott Stadium.” (via Virginia Sports)

Coach Elliott comes from Clemson where they’re steeped in tradition and pregame rituals. He’s prioritizing classic college football staples, like singing the “Good Old Song” after every game in front of the student section, and I’m here for it. It immediately makes me think of West Virginia and their “Country Roads” tradition. You can see the whole list of new additions to the gameday experience here.

Continuing with the tailgate chatter, I also learned Big Law from the Locked on Cavaliers podcast does a contest for the best tailgate. Be on the lookout for that when you’re getting loose before games.

I recently asked Natalie Fitzgerald, an organizer from a tailgate group that’s running 15+ years strong, about what makes the perfect tailgate. To my surprise, it wasn’t barbecue chicken or cold beer, but it was perfect in itself. “Good weather and set-up, but most importantly, good people and friendships.”

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Hello everyone! Casey from Virginia Gameday here and I’m so pumped you stopped by to check out the new site. I had never planned on going this route but after seeing everything Substack had to offer, I could feel it in my gut that it was the next step. Support has been amazing at every turn, from the podcast to social media, and I’m grateful to be making this a reality.

The plan is to publish a weekly Virginia sports column while also showcasing audio, video, and Charlottesville at-large. You can expect content to be fun and unique, and hopefully, a bright spot of your week. Everything will be available for FREE but will eventually be a paid option if you want to support!

2022 ACC Football Preview & Odds

BOLD = names to know when you’re tailgating and talking ball with your friends

Boston College

• Last year record: 6-6, 2-6 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 11th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 3rd in ACC

Big-armed QB and potential first-rounder Phil Jurkovec is back from an injury last year for one more go around at BC. He’ll have some proven weapons at his disposal; wide receiver Zay Flowers was a preseason all-conference pick and running back Pat Garwo III became the 19th player in school history to go over 1,000 yards in a season last year. Though Jurkovec can get out and move, zero starters come back on the offensive line. One of their biggest strengths is their secondary, which helped deliver the ACC’s top passing defense in 2021. 

• Strength of schedule ranking: 8th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Phil Jurkovec +8000

• Over/Under win total: 6.5

• Our Projection: UNDER 

• Bowl Projections: Fenway Bowl (Mark Schlabach, Kyle Bonagura))

Clemson

• Last year record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 9th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 1st in ACC

Wouldn’t it be nice if your team thought 10-3 was a down year? Things are different at Clemson, though, and last year quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was a disappointment. More picks than touchdowns plus a handful of games with less than 20 points. They’ll have plenty of talent around him this year, though, which is no surprise. The defense is elite, especially up front, and offensively, RB Will Shipley (11 rushing TDs), RB Kobe Pace (6.2 yards per carry), WR Joseph Ngata (19 yards per catch), and WR Beaux Collins (31 receptions) all return. In total, six Tigers were on the preseason all-conference team. 

DJ will be better this year, I’m sure. If not there are several other options behind him, including five-star 2022 recruit Cade Klubnik, and grad transfer Hunter Johnson, a five-star from the 2017 class.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 4th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: DJ Uiagalelei +4500, Cade Klubnik +6000, Will Shipley +10000

• Over/Under win total: 10.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: College Football Playoff (Bonagura, Schlabach)

Florida State

• Last year record: 5-7, 4-4 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 8th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 7th in ACC

Another team with a disappointing 2021, particularly early on. The Seminoles even dropped a home game to Jacksonville State in Week 2. Things fell into place as the season wore on and they finished the season with five wins in their final seven games. Quarterback Jordan Travis started those final seven games and now he’ll enter the season as the unquestioned starter. Veteran Ontaria Wilson, a sixth-year wideout, will be a hot target for Travis, along with a foursome of Power-5 transfers the staff brought in. The group includes QB convert Deuce Spann from Illinois, Johnny Wilson from Arizona State, Mycah Pittman from Oregon, and 2020 All-Big 12 selection Winston Wright from West Virginia.

The Sems have a tough schedule ahead of them; their division is strong this year (Clemson, Wake, NC State), plus they have a cross-division road game at Miami, and non-conference games against SEC powers LSU and Florida.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 2nd in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 6.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: Sun Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)

Louisville

• Last year record: 6-7, 4-4 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 7th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 8th in ACC

This will be Malik Cunningham’s fourth consecutive season as Louisville’s starting quarterback and boy, is he fun to watch. Aided by a monster season by Cunningham – 19 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 1,031 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns – the Cards finished the year ranked No. 7 nationally in yards per play. That said, they’re still a middle-of-the-pack team without many indications of a huge breakout season. This will be HC Scott Satterfield’s fourth season and possibly his last. The back half of the schedule is tough, even though four of their last six are at home. “Unless they surprise a lot of people, this feels like the end,” an opposing coach told Athlon Sports.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 6th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Malik Cunningham +6000

• Over/Under win total: 6.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: Military Bowl (Bonagura); Gator Bowl (Schlabach)

NC State

• Last year record: 9-3, 6-2 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 6th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 2nd in ACC

The Pack enter this season with the conference’s preseason player of the year under center. Devin Leary put up some incredibly efficient numbers last year, chucking 35 touchdown passes to just six picks. Thayer Thomas (eight TD catches) and Devin Carter (six TD catches) are back in the picture, plus Porter Rooks and Maryland transfer Darryl Jones, who both caught 23 balls in 2021. Their top tailbacks are gone from a year ago but that wasn’t a huge part of their game anyway, finishing 99th nationally in rushing yards per game. On defense a ton of talent returns from a team that finished in the Top 15 nationally. Three Pack defenders were on the ACC preseason all-conference team. Schedule-wise they have one of the easier ones and they could be really buzzing by their Oct. 1 showdown at Clemson.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 10th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Devin Leary +5000

• Over/Under win total: 8.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Bonagura); Orange Bowl (Schlabach)

Syracuse

• Last year record: 5-7, 2-6 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 10th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 6th in ACC

This was an interesting offseason for the Orange. The team with the best running back in the conference brought in an offensive coordinator that hasn’t given the ball to his running backs all that much in recent years. New OC Robert Anae, formerly of UVA, did help the Hoos to a historic season through the air in 2021 but it’s Sean Tucker who’s their best asset. My guess is they’re banking on a season like 2018 when Anae had a 1,000-yard rusher (Jordan Ellis) and a quarterback (Bryce Perkins) that ran for almost the same. Cuse’s quarterback, Garrett Schrader is in the Perkins mold. He’s a true dual-threat that amassed 23 touchdowns (14 rushing, 9 passing) while only throwing four picks. On the line they have multiple starters returning, including future pro Matthew Bergeron at left tackle. Defensively, the entire linebacker crew and secondary return while they’re replacing a lot up front. 

Cuse has a daunting stretch in their schedule starting Oct. 15 where they face NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Florida State consecutively.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 5th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Sean Tucker +30000

• Over/Under win total: 4.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: N/A

Wake Forest

• Last year record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 2nd in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 10th in ACC

Culture is king in Winston Salem. HC Dave Clawson is building something special and guys are bought in. Big kudos to the staff for locating undervalued talent. They’re not a school that’s going to out-recruit Miami but they’re polishing their 2-3 star guys into gems. A new football complex is underway as well, so it’ll get better.

QB Sam Hartman threw 39 touchdowns last year and his guys are back. Unfortunately, it’s not clear when Hartman will be available to play as a non-football related medical issue popped up during fall camp. He’s currently out indefinitely. In the meantime, the team will be in the hands of Virginia native Mitch Griffis. AT Perry came back to finish business after a 1,000-yard/15 touchdown season. Taylor Morin is also back in the fold. Also a Virginia native, Morin hauled in 43 balls last year and was a preseason all-conference pick at punt returner.

Their defense allowed six yards per play last year, though I did witness them shut down Virginia’s potent attack in Charlottesville in Week 4. This year, the D is still a question mark. With that and the QB question mark, it’s hard to say where they end up.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 13th in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 6.5 (8.5 before Hartman injury)

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: Cheez-it Bowl (Bonagura); Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Schlabach)

Duke

• Last year record: 3-9, 0-8 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 14th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 14th in ACC

The Blue Devils just weren’t competitive last season in the ACC despite beating a few Power-5 teams early. It led to a change of coaching regimes. Out with David Cutcliffe, in with HC Mike Elko. Don’t expect much to change this season. They’re still short on talent in Durham so just being competitive will be a win. They may not win an ACC game, especially since their tilt with Georgia Tech is on the road. As part of CBS Sports preview, all seven experts picked either Duke or Georgia Tech to finish last or second to last. One name to note is LB Shaka Heyward, who comes from a long line of good football players and was a preseason all-conference selection.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 11th in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 3.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: N/A

Georgia Tech

• Last year record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 12th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 13th in ACC

Geoff Collins has had way more change this offseason than someone coming off three consecutive three-win seasons would like. He’s got few starters coming back on either side of the ball, plus a super tough schedule to boot. On the bright side, QB Jeff Sims is back and former Heisman winner Chris Weinke is with the staff to help him develop. Because they host Duke, they might not get shut out in ACC play but outside of that the Western Carolina game might be the only other one where they’re favored. As part of CBS Sports preview, all seven experts picked either Duke or Georgia Tech to finish last or second to last.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 1st in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 3.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: N/A

Miami

• Last year record: 7-5, 5-3 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 5th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 9th in ACC

Tyler Van Dyke played really well last year which has the hype train rolling. Several Top 20 preseason rankings have been secured, and the new regime did work in both the portal and on the recruiting trail. To play a little devil’s advocate here, there’s a year of tape now on TVD as well as a new system being installed.

They’ll be a bowl team for sure but their schedule is tough. There are a number of gimme games on their schedule, but then a solid handful that could go either way. Plus, a lot of the tough games are on the road, including Clemson and Texas A&M. Six of seven CBS Sports experts picked them to finish first in the Coastal Division.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 3rd in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Tyler Van Dyke +3500

• Over/Under win total: 8.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: Gator Bowl (Bonagura); Cheez-it Bowl (Schlabach)

North Carolina

• Last year record: 6-7, 3-5 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 3rd in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 12th in ACC

Last year the Tar Heels failed to live up to the hype. This year, Mack Brown is trying to avoid hype at all cost and make it more of a blue-collar environment. They had an old-fashioned QB competition on their hands between former star recruits Drake Maye & Jacolby Criswell. Maye ultimately won the job and will start their opener vs. Florida A&M. "It's really a close decision,” Brown told ESPN. “We feel like [Maye] earned the right to be out there first.”

UNC has a new quarterback and also another national-title winning head coach on staff. Gene Chizik will run the defense now after leaving his perch as an SEC Network analyst. With all that said, they’re definitely a team that has some people confused. There’s a world where they win 5 or 6 games or a world where they win 8 or 9 games.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 9th in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 7.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: Holiday Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)

Pittsburgh

• Last year record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 1st in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 4th in ACC

Out with the Kenny Pickett-Jordan Addison connection, in with QB Kedon Slovis from USC and a new OC in Frank Cignetti Jr. While losing a legendary combo like that hurts, it could be a lot worse. Slovis threw 30 touchdowns as a freshman at USC and finished his three-year stint with 58 TD’s to 24 picks. The offense will likely be more run dependent with Cignetti Jr. at the helm, the best offensive line in the conference, and their three-headed running back group from last season returning. Israel Abanikanda, Vincent Davis, and Rodney Hammond Jr. each had over 100 carries and 500 rushing yards a year ago.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 7th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Kedon Slovis +6000

• Over/Under win total: 8.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: Orange Bowl (Bonagura); Pinstripe Bowl (Schlabach)

Virginia

• Last year record: 6-6, 4-4 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 4th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 11th in ACC

Some things have changed in Charlottesville since the football team last took the field. Former Clemson OC Tony Elliott is now leading the program, eager to pick up and build from where Bronco Mendenhall left off. The return of record-setting QB Brennan Armstrong and arguably the best receiving core in the conference will make it a lot easier for Elliott, though replacing the entire starting o-line is certainly daunting. By all accounts, the offensive front, bolstered by transfer portal acquisitions and recruiting, is making progress. Des Kitchings takes over the offense, and along with input from Elliott, you can expect a more balanced attack this fall.

On the other side of the ball, the Wahoos had a tough time last year, struggling with confidence and assignments. Out of 130 programs, the unit finished No. 118 in yards per play (6.7 ypp) and No. 110 in points per game (34.7 ppg). Enter new DC John Rudzinski, who led a top-five unit last season at Air Force. Coach Rud has a few notable names returning – LB Nick Jackson, CB Anthony Johnson – as well as a few newcomers that are turning heads. The defensive front has been buzzing as the strength of the team. It’s a fine mix of guys who have been there ready to make their names known – Chico Bennett & Mike Green – and transfers from across the country – Kam Butler from Miami (OH) & former Top-100 recruit Jack Camper. Per former UVA star and current defensive line coach Chris Slade, “Make no mistake about it, Kam is here to get to the league.”

Schedule-wise, it’s shaping up pretty well for the new regime. With a light load in the first half of the season, Elliott could have himself an impressive record at the halfway point of the year. Luckily for the Hoos, when the hard part of the schedule hits, they’re playing in Scott Stadium. The four UVA games between October 29 and November 19 are all at home! A bowl game in Elliott’s first year should be reality, folks.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 12th in ACC

• Heisman candidate: Brennan Armstrong +10000

• Over/Under win total: 7.5

• Our Projection: OVER

• Bowl Projections: Pinstripe Bowl (Bonagura); Military Bowl (Schlabach)

Virginia Tech

• Last year record: 6-7, 4-4 ACC

• Last year scoring offense: 13th in ACC

• Last year scoring defense: 5th in ACC

The Hokies have a new regime in town, as well as a new signal caller. Brent Pry, a former staffer from the Frank Beamer era and most recently Penn State’s DC, adopts a team that never fulfilled expectations under Justin Fuente. He’s tried to try and mend fences with the student body and alumni, though a return to glory won’t be immediate. Marshall transfer Grant Wells is slated to start under center and they have the easiest schedule in the conference, per CBS. Behind Wells is Fredericksburg product Jason Brown, who started multiple games last year for South Carolina before announcing his decision to “come home.” With their schedule and defense, they should finish near the middle in their division.

• Strength of schedule ranking: 14th in ACC

• Over/Under win total: 6.5

• Our Projection: UNDER

• Bowl Projections: Gasparilla Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)

ACC Team Win Totals

• Boston College: 6.5 

• Clemson: 10.5

• Duke 3.5

• Florida State: 6.5

• Georgia Tech: 3.5

• Louisville: 5.5

• Miami (Fla): 8.5

• NC State: 8.5

• North Carolina: 6.5

• Pittsburgh: 7.5 

• Virginia: 7.5

• Virginia Tech 6.5

• Wake Forest: 6.5

ACC Championship Odds

• Clemson -120

• Miami +350

• NC State +700

• Pittsburgh +900

• North Carolina +1500

• Florida State +1600

• Wake Forest +1800

• Louisville +3000

• Virginia +3500

• Boston College +4500

• Virginia Tech +6000

• Georgia Tech +20000

• Syracuse +30000

• Duke +50000

Atlantic Division Odds

• Clemson -220

• NC State +500

• Wake Forest +750

• Florida State +1600

• Boston College +1800

• Louisville +2500

• Syracuse +10000

Coastal Division Odds

• Miami +130

• Pittsburgh +260

• North Carolina +350

• Virginia +750

• Virginia Tech +1000

• Georgia Tech +3500

• Duke +20000

Odds per Bovada / SOS rankings per CBS / Bowl Projections per ESPN

Corner Booth Chronicles will be a section in each newsletter about something local. Sometimes restaurants and bars, sometimes a golf course or event!

On Tuesday, Tony Elliott had his first “Coach’s Corner” session at BJ’s Restaurant on 29. Alongside “The Voice of the Cavaliers” John Freeman, the duo did a solid hour in front of a packed house of Wahoos. And let me tell you, this guy means business. No shirt tails hanging out the back of jerseys, classic uniforms, principal over swagger, and all that. By the end of the show everyone was ready to run through a wall for this guy.

Some things to note, he mentioned an “Orange Out” for the opener, as well as the “Paint the Town Orange” event the Friday before the opener. As far as the restaurant went, they probably weren’t expecting as many people as they had so the front of the house staff was all up in the weeds. I imagine for week two they’ll be ready and things won’t be as jumbled up. They’re telling me I’m about to reach my “length limit” so I gotta go! Thanks for checking out the site, and Go Hoos.

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