Welcome Wahoos! And Let's Get Ready For Some ACC Football
Hello everyone! Casey from Virginia Gameday here and I’m so pumped you stopped by to check out the new site. I had never planned on going this route but after seeing everything Substack had to offer, I could feel it in my gut that it was the next step. Support has been amazing at every turn, from the podcast to social media, and I’m grateful to be making this a reality.
The plan is to publish a weekly Virginia sports column while also showcasing audio, video, and Charlottesville at-large. You can expect content to be fun and unique, and hopefully, a bright spot of your week. Everything will be available for FREE but will eventually be a paid option if you want to support!
2022 ACC Football Preview & Odds
BOLD = names to know when you’re tailgating and talking ball with your friends
Boston College
Last year record: 6-6, 2-6 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 11th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 3rd in ACC
Big-armed QB and potential first-rounder Phil Jurkovec is back from an injury last year for one more go around at BC. He’ll have some proven weapons at his disposal; wide receiver Zay Flowers was a preseason all-conference pick and running back Pat Garwo III became the 19th player in school history to go over 1,000 yards in a season last year. Though Jurkovec can get out and move, zero starters come back on the offensive line. One of their biggest strengths is their secondary, which helped deliver the ACC’s top passing defense in 2021.
Strength of schedule ranking: 8th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Phil Jurkovec +8000
Over/Under win total: 6.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Fenway Bowl (Mark Schlabach, Kyle Bonagura))
Clemson
Last year record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 9th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 1st in ACC
Wouldn’t it be nice if your team thought 10-3 was a down year? Things are different at Clemson, though, and last year quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was a disappointment. More picks than touchdowns plus a handful of games with less than 20 points. They’ll have plenty of talent around him this year, though, which is no surprise. The defense is elite, especially up front, and offensively, RB Will Shipley (11 rushing TDs), RB Kobe Pace (6.2 yards per carry), WR Joseph Ngata (19 yards per catch), and WR Beaux Collins (31 receptions) all return. In total, six Tigers were on the preseason all-conference team.
DJ will be better this year, I’m sure. If not there are several other options behind him, including five-star 2022 recruit Cade Klubnik, and grad transfer Hunter Johnson, a five-star from the 2017 class.
Strength of schedule ranking: 4th in ACC
Heisman candidate: DJ Uiagalelei +4500, Cade Klubnik +6000, Will Shipley +10000
Over/Under win total: 10.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: College Football Playoff (Bonagura, Schlabach)
Florida State
Last year record: 5-7, 4-4 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 8th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 7th in ACC
Another team with a disappointing 2021, particularly early on. The Seminoles even dropped a home game to Jacksonville State in Week 2. Things fell into place as the season wore on and they finished the season with five wins in their final seven games. Quarterback Jordan Travis started those final seven games and now he’ll enter the season as the unquestioned starter. Veteran Ontaria Wilson, a sixth-year wideout, will be a hot target for Travis, along with a foursome of Power-5 transfers the staff brought in. The group includes QB convert Deuce Spann from Illinois, Johnny Wilson from Arizona State, Mycah Pittman from Oregon, and 2020 All-Big 12 selection Winston Wright from West Virginia.
The Sems have a tough schedule ahead of them; their division is strong this year (Clemson, Wake, NC State), plus they have a cross-division road game at Miami, and non-conference games against SEC powers LSU and Florida.
Strength of schedule ranking: 2nd in ACC
Over/Under win total: 6.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: Sun Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)
Louisville
Last year record: 6-7, 4-4 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 7th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 8th in ACC
This will be Malik Cunningham’s fourth consecutive season as Louisville’s starting quarterback and boy, is he fun to watch. Aided by a monster season by Cunningham – 19 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 1,031 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns – the Cards finished the year ranked No. 7 nationally in yards per play. That said, they’re still a middle-of-the-pack team without many indications of a huge breakout season. This will be HC Scott Satterfield’s fourth season and possibly his last. The back half of the schedule is tough, even though four of their last six are at home. “Unless they surprise a lot of people, this feels like the end,” an opposing coach told Athlon Sports.
Strength of schedule ranking: 6th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Malik Cunningham +6000
Over/Under win total: 6.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Military Bowl (Bonagura); Gator Bowl (Schlabach)
NC State
Last year record: 9-3, 6-2 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 6th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 2nd in ACC
The Pack enter this season with the conference’s preseason player of the year under center. Devin Leary put up some incredibly efficient numbers last year, chucking 35 touchdown passes to just six picks. Thayer Thomas (eight TD catches) and Devin Carter (six TD catches) are back in the picture, plus Porter Rooks and Maryland transfer Darryl Jones, who both caught 23 balls in 2021. Their top tailbacks are gone from a year ago but that wasn’t a huge part of their game anyway, finishing 99th nationally in rushing yards per game. On defense a ton of talent returns from a team that finished in the Top 15 nationally. Three Pack defenders were on the ACC preseason all-conference team. Schedule-wise they have one of the easier ones and they could be really buzzing by their Oct. 1 showdown at Clemson.
Strength of schedule ranking: 10th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Devin Leary +5000
Over/Under win total: 8.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Bonagura); Orange Bowl (Schlabach)
Syracuse
Last year record: 5-7, 2-6 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 10th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 6th in ACC
This was an interesting offseason for the Orange. The team with the best running back in the conference brought in an offensive coordinator that hasn’t given the ball to his running backs all that much in recent years. New OC Robert Anae, formerly of UVA, did help the Hoos to a historic season through the air in 2021 but it’s Sean Tucker who’s their best asset. My guess is they’re banking on a season like 2018 when Anae had a 1,000-yard rusher (Jordan Ellis) and a quarterback (Bryce Perkins) that ran for almost the same. Cuse’s quarterback, Garrett Schrader is in the Perkins mold. He’s a true dual-threat that amassed 23 touchdowns (14 rushing, 9 passing) while only throwing four picks. On the line they have multiple starters returning, including future pro Matthew Bergeron at left tackle. Defensively, the entire linebacker crew and secondary return while they’re replacing a lot up front.
Cuse has a daunting stretch in their schedule starting Oct. 15 where they face NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Florida State consecutively.
Strength of schedule ranking: 5th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Sean Tucker +30000
Over/Under win total: 4.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: N/A
Wake Forest
Last year record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 2nd in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 10th in ACC
Culture is king in Winston Salem. HC Dave Clawson is building something special and guys are bought in. Big kudos to the staff for locating undervalued talent. They’re not a school that’s going to out-recruit Miami but they’re polishing their 2-3 star guys into gems. A new football complex is underway as well, so it’ll get better.
QB Sam Hartman threw 39 touchdowns last year and his guys are back. Unfortunately, it’s not clear when Hartman will be available to play as a non-football related medical issue popped up during fall camp. He’s currently out indefinitely. In the meantime, the team will be in the hands of Virginia native Mitch Griffis. AT Perry came back to finish business after a 1,000-yard/15 touchdown season. Taylor Morin is also back in the fold. Also a Virginia native, Morin hauled in 43 balls last year and was a preseason all-conference pick at punt returner.
Their defense allowed six yards per play last year, though I did witness them shut down Virginia’s potent attack in Charlottesville in Week 4. This year, the D is still a question mark. With that and the QB question mark, it’s hard to say where they end up.
Strength of schedule ranking: 13th in ACC
Over/Under win total: 6.5 (8.5 before Hartman injury)
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Cheez-it Bowl (Bonagura); Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Schlabach)
Duke
Last year record: 3-9, 0-8 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 14th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 14th in ACC
The Blue Devils just weren’t competitive last season in the ACC despite beating a few Power-5 teams early. It led to a change of coaching regimes. Out with David Cutcliffe, in with HC Mike Elko. Don’t expect much to change this season. They’re still short on talent in Durham so just being competitive will be a win. They may not win an ACC game, especially since their tilt with Georgia Tech is on the road. As part of CBS Sports preview, all seven experts picked either Duke or Georgia Tech to finish last or second to last. One name to note is LB Shaka Heyward, who comes from a long line of good football players and was a preseason all-conference selection.
Strength of schedule ranking: 11th in ACC
Over/Under win total: 3.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: N/A
Georgia Tech
Last year record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 12th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 13th in ACC
Geoff Collins has had way more change this offseason than someone coming off three consecutive three-win seasons would like. He’s got few starters coming back on either side of the ball, plus a super tough schedule to boot. On the bright side, QB Jeff Sims is back and former Heisman winner Chris Weinke is with the staff to help him develop. Because they host Duke, they might not get shut out in ACC play but outside of that the Western Carolina game might be the only other one where they’re favored. As part of CBS Sports preview, all seven experts picked either Duke or Georgia Tech to finish last or second to last.
Strength of schedule ranking: 1st in ACC
Over/Under win total: 3.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: N/A
Miami
Last year record: 7-5, 5-3 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 5th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 9th in ACC
Tyler Van Dyke played really well last year which has the hype train rolling. Several Top 20 preseason rankings have been secured, and the new regime did work in both the portal and on the recruiting trail. To play a little devil’s advocate here, there’s a year of tape now on TVD as well as a new system being installed.
They’ll be a bowl team for sure but their schedule is tough. There are a number of gimme games on their schedule, but then a solid handful that could go either way. Plus, a lot of the tough games are on the road, including Clemson and Texas A&M. Six of seven CBS Sports experts picked them to finish first in the Coastal Division.
Strength of schedule ranking: 3rd in ACC
Heisman candidate: Tyler Van Dyke +3500
Over/Under win total: 8.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: Gator Bowl (Bonagura); Cheez-it Bowl (Schlabach)
North Carolina
Last year record: 6-7, 3-5 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 3rd in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 12th in ACC
Last year the Tar Heels failed to live up to the hype. This year, Mack Brown is trying to avoid hype at all cost and make it more of a blue-collar environment. They had an old-fashioned QB competition on their hands between former star recruits Drake Maye & Jacolby Criswell. Maye ultimately won the job and will start their opener vs. Florida A&M. "It's really a close decision,” Brown told ESPN. “We feel like [Maye] earned the right to be out there first.”
UNC has a new quarterback and also another national-title winning head coach on staff. Gene Chizik will run the defense now after leaving his perch as an SEC Network analyst. With all that said, they’re definitely a team that has some people confused. There’s a world where they win 5 or 6 games or a world where they win 8 or 9 games.
Strength of schedule ranking: 9th in ACC
Over/Under win total: 7.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Holiday Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)
Pittsburgh
Last year record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 1st in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 4th in ACC
Out with the Kenny Pickett-Jordan Addison connection, in with QB Kedon Slovis from USC and a new OC in Frank Cignetti Jr. While losing a legendary combo like that hurts, it could be a lot worse. Slovis threw 30 touchdowns as a freshman at USC and finished his three-year stint with 58 TD’s to 24 picks. The offense will likely be more run dependent with Cignetti Jr. at the helm, the best offensive line in the conference, and their three-headed running back group from last season returning. Israel Abanikanda, Vincent Davis, and Rodney Hammond Jr. each had over 100 carries and 500 rushing yards a year ago.
Strength of schedule ranking: 7th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Kedon Slovis +6000
Over/Under win total: 8.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Orange Bowl (Bonagura); Pinstripe Bowl (Schlabach)
Virginia
Last year record: 6-6, 4-4 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 4th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 11th in ACC
Some things have changed in Charlottesville since the football team last took the field. Former Clemson OC Tony Elliott is now leading the program, eager to pick up and build from where Bronco Mendenhall left off. The return of record-setting QB Brennan Armstrong and arguably the best receiving core in the conference will make it a lot easier for Elliott, though replacing the entire starting o-line is certainly daunting. By all accounts, the offensive front, bolstered by transfer portal acquisitions and recruiting, is making progress. Des Kitchings takes over the offense, and along with input from Elliott, you can expect a more balanced attack this fall.
On the other side of the ball, the Wahoos had a tough time last year, struggling with confidence and assignments. Out of 130 programs, the unit finished No. 118 in yards per play (6.7 ypp) and No. 110 in points per game (34.7 ppg). Enter new DC John Rudzinski, who led a top-five unit last season at Air Force. Coach Rud has a few notable names returning – LB Nick Jackson, CB Anthony Johnson – as well as a few newcomers that are turning heads. The defensive front has been buzzing as the strength of the team. It’s a fine mix of guys who have been there ready to make their names known – Chico Bennett & Mike Green – and transfers from across the country – Kam Butler from Miami (OH) & former Top-100 recruit Jack Camper. Per former UVA star and current defensive line coach Chris Slade, “Make no mistake about it, Kam is here to get to the league.”
Schedule-wise, it’s shaping up pretty well for the new regime. With a light load in the first half of the season, Elliott could have himself an impressive record at the halfway point of the year. Luckily for the Hoos, when the hard part of the schedule hits, they’re playing in Scott Stadium. The four UVA games between October 29 and November 19 are all at home! A bowl game in Elliott’s first year should be reality, folks.
Strength of schedule ranking: 12th in ACC
Heisman candidate: Brennan Armstrong +10000
Over/Under win total: 7.5
Our Projection: OVER
Bowl Projections: Pinstripe Bowl (Bonagura); Military Bowl (Schlabach)
Virginia Tech
Last year record: 6-7, 4-4 ACC
Last year scoring offense: 13th in ACC
Last year scoring defense: 5th in ACC
The Hokies have a new regime in town, as well as a new signal caller. Brent Pry, a former staffer from the Frank Beamer era and most recently Penn State’s DC, adopts a team that never fulfilled expectations under Justin Fuente. He’s tried to try and mend fences with the student body and alumni, though a return to glory won’t be immediate. Marshall transfer Grant Wells is slated to start under center and they have the easiest schedule in the conference, per CBS. Behind Wells is Fredericksburg product Jason Brown, who started multiple games last year for South Carolina before announcing his decision to “come home.” With their schedule and defense, they should finish near the middle in their division.
Strength of schedule ranking: 14th in ACC
Over/Under win total: 6.5
Our Projection: UNDER
Bowl Projections: Gasparilla Bowl (Bonagura, Schlabach)
ACC Team Win Totals
Boston College: 6.5
Clemson: 10.5
Duke 3.5
Florida State: 6.5
Georgia Tech: 3.5
Louisville: 5.5
Miami (Fla): 8.5
NC State: 8.5
North Carolina: 6.5
Pittsburgh: 7.5
Virginia: 7.5
Virginia Tech 6.5
Wake Forest: 6.5
ACC Championship Odds
Clemson -120
Miami +350
NC State +700
Pittsburgh +900
North Carolina +1500
Florida State +1600
Wake Forest +1800
Louisville +3000
Virginia +3500
Boston College +4500
Virginia Tech +6000
Georgia Tech +20000
Syracuse +30000
Duke +50000
Atlantic Division Odds
Clemson -220
NC State +500
Wake Forest +750
Florida State +1600
Boston College +1800
Louisville +2500
Syracuse +10000
Coastal Division Odds
Miami +130
Pittsburgh +260
North Carolina +350
Virginia +750
Virginia Tech +1000
Georgia Tech +3500
Duke +20000
Corner Booth Chronicles will be a section in each newsletter about something local. Sometimes restaurants and bars, sometimes a golf course or event!
On Tuesday, Tony Elliott had his first “Coach’s Corner” session at BJ’s Restaurant on 29. Alongside “The Voice of the Cavaliers” John Freeman, the duo did a solid hour in front of a packed house of Wahoos. And let me tell you, this guy means business. No shirt tails hanging out the back of jerseys, classic uniforms, principal over swagger, and all that. By the end of the show everyone was ready to run through a wall for this guy.
Some things to note, he mentioned an “Orange Out” for the opener, as well as the “Paint the Town Orange” event the Friday before the opener. As far as the restaurant went, they probably weren’t expecting as many people as they had so the front of the house staff was all up in the weeds. I imagine for week two they’ll be ready and things won’t be as jumbled up. They’re telling me I’m about to reach my “length limit” so I gotta go! Thanks for checking out the site, and Go Hoos.
